Executive Summary

Macroeconomic Outlook

Global CEOs predict a surge in M&A in 2024

• 68% of both CEOs and investors expect a sizable M&A uptick in 2024 despite tougher regulatory oversight and higher cost of capital.
• 53% of CEOs expect worsening economic conditions in the first half of 2024; however, 94% of investors expect the macroeconomic environment to improve.
• 81% of UK-based CEOs surveyed say the value of listing in the UK has declined in the past year, with one-third reporting they considered relisting outside of the UK.

Deglobalization

Four out of five CEOs continue to retool in the face of deglobalization challenges

• 80% of CEOs report ongoing adjustments to prepare for the potential of deglobalization, with a particular focus on supply chain resiliency.
• Meanwhile, 20% of CEOs (more than double last year’s rate) are not planning for additional preparations in 2024, indicating that they have already adjusted to this new normal.
• Amidst persistent friction around geopolitics, supply chains and trade barriers, the strategic importance of China has increased in the minds of both CEOs and investors over the past year.

Innovation

AI crossroads: CEOs face pressure to develop powerful AI solutions while minimizing risks

• AI tops the list of technology investment priorities for both CEOs and investors, with nearly 80% actively investing in AI (a 20-point jump from last year).
• As investors push for the development of higher quality AI tools at speed, CEOs grapple with security, legal and compliance risks.
• With one in four CEOs reporting that they do not currently have the right talent to enable adoption of AI, investors believe CEOs may be underestimating the potential disruption within companies’ workforces.

Disruption

Anticipated political shifts risk upending corporate strategy

• Domestic political disruption is cited as the top risk heading into 2024, with potential changes to monetary policy and government spending, data privacy rules and environmental regulation of chief concern.
• Every U.S.-based CEO surveyed is making some type of change to their business strategy in anticipation of the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.

ESG

Despite political headwinds, 92% of global CEOs surveyed are staying the course on ESG

• In the face of increasing politicization of ESG, only 8% of CEOs are ramping down their ESG programs. However, 72% of CEOs are making some change in how they operate – with many exercising increased caution on external communication of ESG initiatives.
• U.S.-based CEOs surveyed are divided on DE&I initiatives, with half continuing or accelerating their programs, while over one-third re-evaluate.

Leadership

Current bosses place a premium on technology skills for the next generation of CEOs

• CEOs and investors believe that the next generation of CEOs will need a combination of traditional leadership traits and data/tech savviness.
• Over the next 1-3 years, CEOs believe that compensation will be the greatest retention challenge, while investors put a combination of ESG and DE&I factors at the top of the list.

Methodology

Teneo’s Vision 2024 CEO and Investor Outlook Survey was conducted by the firm’s in-house data, insights and analytics team

The survey includes the views of more than 260 global CEOs and institutional investors representing more than $3.4 trillion USD of company and portfolio value.

The CEOs surveyed represent a global distribution of publicly traded companies with a minimum annual revenue of $1 billion USD or greater. Large companies are defined as $10 billion+ USD in annual revenue; mid-sized companies are defined as $1 billion USD – $9.99 billion USD in annual revenue.

The investors surveyed include a global sampling of professional investors in investment banking, institutional investing, venture investing, asset management, private equity and hedge funds.

The survey was conducted between October 12 and November 27, 2023.

Note: Some columns throughout the report may not total to 100% due to rounding.