Teneo’s Management Consulting team is widely considered to be one of the world’s leading centers of expertise in complex demand forecasting. We developed bespoke approaches that are widely utilized and referenced across multiple sectors and central governments for accurately predicting future demand and revenue for products and services.

Our bottom-up modeling process uses historical demand data, which is segmented and overlaid with specific drivers of demand to arrive at a robust, data-led view of future demand within a specific market context.  

This analysis enables us to provide segmented forecasts of future demand to enable decision-making in areas such as commercial strategy, pricing, estate planning, service optimization, budgeting and forecasting, financing, investment strategy and capex expenditure and operational improvement.

We have leveraged this capability to support a range of consumer clients including internationally-renowned hospitality chains, UK pub chains, international hotel chains and major online clothes retailers. 

A combination of rapidly changing macroeconomic and geopolitical events has led to a unique period of economic change across all geographies. Historical events give us some indication of how consumers have responded during periods of economic change and struggle, particularly in the aftermath of the 2008 Financial Crisis. However, the current confluence of factors is impacting businesses in unique ways.  

The challenges brought about by increasingly high inflation and comparatively limited wage growth across many geographies have resulted in a cost of living crisis that has squeezed consumer disposable income, impacting demand. Supply-side cost challenges are also exacerbating the overall revenue picture for businesses. As the world emerges from the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, analysis and forecasting of emerging trends will only become more critical for successful businesses and government interventions.

We work with consumer-facing businesses to carry out fact-based building and determine the pessimistic, optimistic and most likely economic scenarios and their potential impact on each of their business to inform mitigation strategies.

We also develop detailed economic forecasts on a quarterly basis to assist businesses with internal planning and strategy development. These outline the full impact of inflation, the risk that falling consumer confidence has on spending, the difficult purchasing decisions consumers are likely to make as they look to cover essential costs and their knock-on impact on business output.  

We support consumer clients in the end-to-end strategy development process to support growth, from initial market analysis, demand forecasting and scenario modelling, to prioritization of initiatives, articulation of strategy and implementation.  

This work is often used to support financial decision-making, including securing external investment, at which point we can support our clients in preparing for investment pitches through the articulation of their offering and commercial proposition.

Recent macroeconomic and geopolitical events have driven significant changes to consumer behaviour, alongside ongoing trends towards sustainable purchases and digital preferences amongst some consumer groups. These changes have impacted consumers’ appetite to spend, especially on discretionary items such as hospitality and leisure.  

We help clients understand these trends by consumer type, through market research and internal data analysis, with a view to developing a demand-driven pricing strategy that optimizes revenue and maintains competitive positioning.