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Global Newsletter & Insights Series
Our economic insights team provides deep expertise on macro and consumer economics for businesses, as well as economic impact assessments for government institutions, to inform decision-making.
We regularly carry out detailed economic scenario modelling for businesses and economic impact assessments for a range of government institutions. We offer expert advice on the wider economic and employment impacts of strategic and financial decisions, in addition to extensive broader advisory services in relation to economic impacts and forecasting. Our team has supported the UK government’s financial assistance to a leading UK airline, the restructure of the UK rail industry in the aftermath of Covid-19 and the Scottish Government on high-profile government interventions. We are also a retained advisor on economic impact and risk to some of the world’s largest corporates, including a leading international fast-food chain, a major U.S. airline and an international transport-owning group.
We publish detailed economic forecasts for the UK, U.S. and other major global economies on a quarterly basis to assist businesses with internal planning and strategy development. These forecasts outline the full impact of inflation, the risk that falling consumer confidence has on spending, the difficult purchasing decisions consumers are likely to make as they look to cover essential costs and their knock-on impact on business output.
Our economic analysis work is supported by Teneo Senior Advisor, Professor Jonathan Portes, former Chief Economist to the UK Cabinet Office and the most senior economist in the UK during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
H2 2024 UK Economic and Consumer Forecast
Section 1: Executive Summary UK economic growth, falling inflation and wage growth have resulted in the recovery of household finances above 2021 levels. However, structural services inflation and higher interest rates present risks to sustained further consumer spending growth. Section 2: The UK Economy Continues to Recover in… Read More
2024 UK Economic and Consumer Forecast
Section 01: Executive summary Falling inflation and upward wage pressure are resulting in household relief after two years of real wage decline. However, continued pressure from mortgage rates and debt accumulation means we expect consumer spending to remain suppressed. 1: Slow growth and recessionary pressure are causing the UK labour… Read More
2023 UK Economic and Consumer Outlook
The UK narrowly avoided recession in 2022, and the most recent forecasts suggest low/stagnant growth, with the UK ultimately avoiding a technical recession that appeared inevitable in November when the country was still reeling from the impact of the previous Government's "mini budget." While inflation is forecast to fall, we… Read MoreA combination of rapidly changing macroeconomic and geopolitical events has led to a unique period of economic change across all geographies. Historical events give us some indication of business responses to periods of economic change and struggle, particularly in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. However, the current confluence of factors is impacting businesses in unique ways.
The challenges brought about by increasingly high inflation and comparatively limited wage growth across many geographies have resulted in a cost of living crisis that has squeezed consumer disposable income, impacting demand. Supply-side cost challenges are also exacerbating the overall financial picture for businesses. As the world emerges from post-Covid and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, analysis and forecasting of emerging trends will only become more critical for successful businesses and government interventions.
We work with private and public sector clients across a broad range of industries, including aviation, rail and bus, hospitality, retail, manufacturing, renewable energy, telecoms and non-profit. We work with these groups to carry out fact-based building and to determine the pessimistic, optimistic and most likely economic scenarios and their potential impacts to inform mitigation strategies. The key to our approach is our ability to translate macro and consumer trends into specific impacts on a client or business unit in terms of demand, revenue, yield and customer experience.
We worked with a leading international fast-food chain to help the business navigate a complex economic climate across 10 different geographies by developing inflationary scenarios, analyzing the likely impact on businesses and workshopping potential mitigation strategies.
In a rapidly changing economic context, we can leverage our economic impact analysis capabilities to support decision-making within government institutions. In the UK, our experience of modelling the indirect and induced economic impacts (whilst following Green Book guidance) enables us to articulate the forecasted consequences of certain policy options or proposed support initiatives/financial packages.
We are engaged with several government departments on an ongoing basis to conduct economic impact analysis and provide strategic counsel to inform their decision-making around policy development and the provision of financial support to various markets.
We worked with a UK government department to undertake economic impact analysis and provide strategic counsel to inform decision-making around the provision of financial support to a certain part of the market.
Teneo’s Management Consulting team is considered to be a leading center of expertise in complex demand forecasting. We developed bespoke approaches that are widely utilized and referenced across multiple sectors and central governments for accurately predicting future demand and revenue for products and services.
Our bottom-up modeling process uses historical demand data, which is segmented and overlaid with specific drivers of demand to arrive at a robust, data-led view of future demand within a specific market context.
This analysis enables us to provide segmented forecasts of future demand to support decision-making in areas such as commercial strategy, pricing, estate planning, service optimization, budgeting and forecasting, financing, investment strategy and capex expenditure and operational improvement.
We have leveraged this capability to support clients across a broad range of sectors, including aviation, rail and bus, internationally renowned hospitality chains, UK pub chains, events businesses, non-profit organisations, international hotel chains and major online clothes retailers.
Teneo conducted diligence of a leading airline’s short- and long-term financial position to consider extended financial support, including assessment of the revenue forecast to calculate cash flow impact in several future scenarios.
Teneo worked directly with one of the world’s leading banks to forecast demand for one of its distressed consumer assets and how this would impact its revenue picture, prompting the bank to consider a covenant reset or disposal.
We often use our macroeconomic and demand modeling capabilities to support M&A and refinancing activity. We can provide detailed market analysis and demand/supply forecasting to factor into diligence activity and overall decision-making around commercial and financial transactions.
We undertook complex economic scenario modeling to forecast the financials of a European renewable energy asset based on short- and medium-term supply and demand side trends, to support a sale of the business.
Due to a series of factors – ranging from the long-term impacts of the pandemic to the ongoing effects of the conflict in Ukraine – the UK is currently exposed to a unique range of economic pressures. For the first time in 30 years, the country is operating in a…
The UK narrowly avoided recession in 2022, and the most recent forecasts suggest low/stagnant growth, with the UK ultimately avoiding a technical recession that appeared inevitable in November when the country was still reeling from the impact of the previous Government's "mini budget." While inflation is forecast to fall, we…
The UK narrowly avoided recession in 2022, and the most recent forecasts for 2023 suggest a shallower recession than was anticipated last November. Although inflation is forecast to fall, the UK economy still faces a number of challenges, including rising interest rates, wage pressures driven by inflation and a tight…
