A combination of rapidly changing macroeconomic and geopolitical events has led to a unique period of economic change across all geographies. Historical events give us some indication of business responses to periods of economic change and struggle, particularly in the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. However, the current confluence of factors is impacting businesses in unique ways.

The challenges brought about by increasingly high inflation and comparatively limited wage growth across many geographies have resulted in a cost of living crisis that has squeezed consumer disposable income, impacting demand. Supply-side cost challenges are also exacerbating the overall financial picture for businesses. As the world emerges from post-Covid and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, analysis and forecasting of emerging trends will only become more critical for successful businesses and government interventions.

We work with private and public sector clients across a broad range of industries, including aviation, rail and bus, hospitality, retail, manufacturing, renewable energy, telecoms and non-profit. We work with these groups to carry out fact-based building and to determine the pessimistic, optimistic and most likely economic scenarios and their potential impacts to inform mitigation strategies. The key to our approach is our ability to translate macro and consumer trends into specific impacts on a client or business unit in terms of demand, revenue, yield and customer experience.

In a rapidly changing economic context, we can leverage our economic impact analysis capabilities to support decision-making within government institutions. In the UK, our experience of modelling the indirect and induced economic impacts (whilst following Green Book guidance) enables us to articulate the forecasted consequences of certain policy options or proposed support initiatives/financial packages.

We are engaged with several government departments on an ongoing basis to conduct economic impact analysis and provide strategic counsel to inform their decision-making around policy development and the provision of financial support to various markets.

Teneo’s Management Consulting team is considered to be a leading center of expertise in complex demand forecasting. We developed bespoke approaches that are widely utilized and referenced across multiple sectors and central governments for accurately predicting future demand and revenue for products and services.

Our bottom-up modeling process uses historical demand data, which is segmented and overlaid with specific drivers of demand to arrive at a robust, data-led view of future demand within a specific market context.

This analysis enables us to provide segmented forecasts of future demand to support decision-making in areas such as commercial strategy, pricing, estate planning, service optimization, budgeting and forecasting, financing, investment strategy and capex expenditure and operational improvement.

We have leveraged this capability to support clients across a broad range of sectors, including aviation, rail and bus, internationally renowned hospitality chains, UK pub chains, events businesses, non-profit organisations, international hotel chains and major online clothes retailers.

We often use our macroeconomic and demand modeling capabilities to support M&A and refinancing activity. We can provide detailed market analysis and demand/supply forecasting to factor into diligence activity and overall decision-making around commercial and financial transactions.