Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at an evolving political funding scandal in Japan. Meanwhile, Chinese health officials have commented on a surge in respiratory illness, the budget crisis continues…

Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at G7 debates over the situation in the Middle East. Meanwhile, US and Chinese diplomats held meetings, the European Commission will issue its assessment…

Growing incidences of conflicts globally raise questions about the effects on Asia, which has some of the world’s most significant geopolitical hotspots. Below, we examine how dynamics in East and Southeast Asia are being influenced by broader global events, for worse or (sometimes) better. The basic takeaway is that there…

Amid a flurry of activity this calendar year, the macro-level view is that Japan-US ties have surely never been better nor strategic priorities more closely aligned than they are today. After the restoration of trust during the early part of the Biden administration, Tokyo and Washington are now breaking new…

Demographic decline is the most fundamental issue affecting Japan’s future, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s decision to put children and child-rearing policies at the top of his domestic agenda for 2023 makes sense politically. The issue evokes existential worries about the nation's future among voters, and being seen to take…

A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it…

Record high LNG prices have resulted in large cuts to LNG imports across Asia with varied impacts depending on spot market exposure, fuel-switching options and economic responses. Countries in Southeast Asia tend to be the most exposed, whereas countries like India, China, Japan, or South Korea have more fuel-switching options…

Japan is strongly invested in maintaining peace and stability on the Taiwan Strait, given how vital both mainland China and Taiwan are to Japan's economic interests. Japan would have a strong incentive to stay in step with the G7 in the case of heightened tensions, and despite some ambiguity, would…

A recuperating Prime Minister Kishida responded humbly to the two-pronged scandal that has burst his cabinet’s net approval ratings since the death of Shinzo Abe. Kishida promised to cut ties between LDP Diet members and the controversial Unification Church and sought to better explain his decision to grant a costly…

The shocking assassination of former prime minister Shinzo Abe on 8 July is an inflection point in modern Japanese history that will deeply shake political elites and the public alike. However, it is a black swan event and does not portend political or social instability. Sympathy votes may increase the…

The conservative People Power Party (PPP) was the clear winner in the 1 June local elections, outpacing expectations to sweep 12 of 17 governorships and over two-thirds of the lower-level leadership posts on the ballot. Given that the PPP’s Yoon Seok-youl won March’s presidential election by a razor-thin margin over Democratic…

This month president-elect Yoon Seok-youl dispatched a foreign policy delegation to Washington to seek early progress on defense issues and prepare the ground for a summit with President Biden on May 21 in Seoul. A delegation to Tokyo met with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on 26 April in a significant…

Japan has continued its maximalist response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, this week calling out “war crimes” and further ramping up financial and economic sanctions. Recent events have undone years of Japanese efforts to improve ties with its northern neighbor, while the downturn in relations has had the least impact…

The government will ease the effective ban on most foreign arrivals from March, although it could take more than six months for displaced international workers, students, and others to re-enter the country. Prime ministers since Shinzo Abe have pushed to have the world engage more with Japan economically and culturally,…

Fumio Kishida has won the LDP leadership race, leveraging Diet members’ support to edge out grassroots favorite Taro Kono in both rounds of the vote. Known as a moderate but mutable right-winger, Kishida is set to govern with a slightly ‘kinder’ variant of Abenomics and a continued commitment to digital…

Strategic silence from Abe and Aso undermined Yoshihide Suga, but the prime minister’s own gambits hastened his departure. Taro Kono is set to enter the race as the favorite, and Kishida may now be joined by Ishiba and other candidates. The LDP’s prospects for the general election will now improve,…