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Gabriel Wildau

Managing Director

Gabriel is a Managing Director focusing on political risk analysis in China. He was previously Shanghai Bureau Chief for the Financial Times, where he covered China’s macro-economy, financial system, and markets.

Prior to the Financial Times, Gabriel served as the China Finance Correspondent and Markets Correspondent for Reuters, where he wrote daily reports on China’s interbank foreign exchange and money markets. He also worked as a research analyst for SK Group China and as the Beijing bureau chief for GaveKal-Dragonomics, a macro-economic consultancy. He graduated magna cum laude from Brown University and is fluent in Mandarin.

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Weekly Political Compass 2.3.25Weekly Political Compass 2.3.25 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the rapidly evolving landscape of U.S. trade policy, impacting China, Mexico, Canada, and perhaps South Africa. Meanwhile, Japan’s PM will visit Washington, the UK’s PM will… February 3, 2025 By Wolfango Piccoli, Gabriel Wildau
What to Watch in 2025: Outlooks for the Year Ahead From Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk TeamWhat to Watch in 2025: Outlooks for the Year Ahead From Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team Foreword: The Global Year Ahead As the dust settles on a momentous U.S. election and the incoming administration takes shape, the geopolitical landscape for 2025 is already coming into focus. Against this backdrop, our team of analysts once again explores the critical global trends and regional hotspots demanding attention in… December 10, 2024 By Kevin Kajiwara, Wolfango Piccoli, Manji Cheto, Anne Frühauf, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, James Brady, Arpit Chaturvedi, Emily Stromquist, Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Meghan McDonough, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Shamaila Ashraf, Jon B. Alterman, James Crossland, Nate Tamarin
Weekly Political Compass 11.25.24Weekly Political Compass 11.25.24 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at EU-China trade tensions. Meanwhile, political reforms are on the agenda in Japan and Brazil, while the first-round result of Romania’s presidential election has raised questions of… November 25, 2024 By Wolfango Piccoli, Gabriel Wildau
China: Fiscal Stimulus is a Tactical, Not Strategic, ShiftChina: Fiscal Stimulus is a Tactical, Not Strategic, Shift China's fiscal stimulus will emphasize support for medium- and long-term growth rather than immediate jolts to household consumption and infrastructure spending. Fiscal stimulus will focus on supporting indebted local governments, increasing capital adequacy at big banks, digesting unsold housing inventory, and supporting consumption by disadvantaged groups. The leadership's shift to… October 15, 2024 By Gabriel Wildau
Weekly Political Compass 4.29.24Weekly Political Compass 4.29.24 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at US-Taiwan trade talks. Meanwhile, Japan’s main opposition party won all three seats in by-elections, Turkey’s ruling coalition is set to launch a new effort for constitutional… April 29, 2024 By Wolfango Piccoli, Gabriel Wildau
U.S.-China Tensions Drive Deglobalization Concerns Among Businesses and InvestorsU.S.-China Tensions Drive Deglobalization Concerns Among Businesses and Investors Deglobalization has become a hot topic in recent years, but the term is vague enough to encompass a broad range of specific issues. Lurking behind nearly all of these, however, is U.S.-China geopolitical tensions and the return of protectionist policies around the world. Vision 2024, Teneo’s annual CEO & Investor… January 24, 2024 By Gabriel Wildau
What to Watch in 2024: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk TeamWhat to Watch in 2024: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,… December 6, 2023 By Kevin Kajiwara, Wolfango Piccoli, Anne Frühauf, Emily Stromquist, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, James Brady, Arpit Chaturvedi, , Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Shamaila Ashraf, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Jon B. Alterman, Meghan McDonough, James Crossland, Orson Porter
China/Philippines: South China Sea Conflict Risk Still Low, but RisingChina/Philippines: South China Sea Conflict Risk Still Low, but Rising Two collisions in disputed waters highlight the longer-term trend of increased assertiveness by both Manila and Beijing in their attempts to assert sovereignty. The risk continues to be of a miscalculation, not intentional escalation; both sides will try to avoid an "armed attack" that would invoke the US-Philippines Mutual Defense… October 26, 2023 By Gabriel Wildau, Bob Herrera-Lim
Asia: How the Rise in Conflicts Globally Impacts Asia’s HotspotsAsia: How the Rise in Conflicts Globally Impacts Asia’s Hotspots Growing incidences of conflicts globally raise questions about the effects on Asia, which has some of the world’s most significant geopolitical hotspots. Below, we examine how dynamics in East and Southeast Asia are being influenced by broader global events, for worse or (sometimes) better. The basic takeaway is that there… October 17, 2023 By James Brady, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Victor D. Cha
China: Purge of Defense Minister Hints at Intrigue, but Few Policy ImplicationsChina: Purge of Defense Minister Hints at Intrigue, but Few Policy Implications Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu is reportedly under investigation for corruption related to military procurement, along with eight other officials from the procurement unit he led. We see few clear policy implications from Li's apparent ouster, because he was not among the most influential party-state officials on foreign policy and… September 19, 2023 By Gabriel Wildau
Weekly Political Compass 9.18.23Weekly Political Compass 9.18.23 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the EU’s investigation into Chinese EV subsidies. Meanwhile, monetary policy change looks unlikely in Japan, the leaders of Turkey and Greece will… September 18, 2023 By Wolfango Piccoli, Gabriel Wildau
US/China: Yellen’s Visit Reinforces Cyclical Stabilization of RelationsUS/China: Yellen’s Visit Reinforces Cyclical Stabilization of Relations U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's meetings in Beijing yielded no policy breakthroughs but marked further progress towards stabilizing bilateral relations. China's leadership likely views Yellen as the best advocate within the Biden administration for maintaining tight economic ties, and warm state media coverage suggests an attempt to flatter her. The… July 11, 2023 By Gabriel Wildau
US/China: Blinken’s Trip Puts Modest Rapprochement Back on TrackUS/China: Blinken’s Trip Puts Modest Rapprochement Back on Track US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken's two-day trip to Beijing was a success, at least based on the low expectations surrounding it. Both sides demonstrated their desire to stabilize bilateral relations and resume the trajectory towards bilateral rapprochement that was interrupted by February's balloon incident. US-China relations may now enter… June 20, 2023 By Gabriel Wildau
US/China: What Would a Bilateral “Thaw” Look Like?US/China: What Would a Bilateral “Thaw” Look Like? US-China diplomatic contacts are increasing, and bilateral relations appear to be returning to the baseline established prior to February's balloon incident. Despite this apparent "thaw," we see little scope for substantive breakthroughs in bilateral ties, given that neither side is willing to offer concessions. Even absent concrete policy shifts, however,… May 26, 2023 By Gabriel Wildau
China: What is the Global Security Initiative?China: What is the Global Security Initiative? China's Global Security Initiative (GSI) aims to build a diplomatic and security architecture to rival the US-led system of multilateral treaties, alliances, and institutions. So far the GSI remains ill-defined and largely re-packages existing Chinese-led forums, multilateral institutions, and security concepts, but Beijing will flesh out the initiative gradually. Process… May 1, 2023 By Gabriel Wildau
Teneo Survey Shows Mix of Optimism and Concern About China Among Global CEOs and InvestorsTeneo Survey Shows Mix of Optimism and Concern About China Among Global CEOs and Investors This year is shaping up to be a pivotal one for the future of foreign investment in China. Economic growth slowed to 3% in 2022, the slowest annual pace since 1976, not including 2020, when Covid-19 first emerged. China’s harsh zero-Covid policy was the main factor… February 8, 2023 By Gabriel Wildau
US/China: Balloon Fiasco Deflates Emerging DétenteUS/China: Balloon Fiasco Deflates Emerging Détente Despite earlier Chinese balloons that US officials declined to publicize, the Biden administration apparently calculated that, given its low altitude, this balloon would inevitably be discovered. We doubt that Chinese leaders intended to engage in a brazen provocation ahead of a planned US visit to Beijing; a technical malfunction is… February 6, 2023 By Gabriel Wildau,
US/China: What to Expect from the New Congress on China PolicyUS/China: What to Expect from the New Congress on China Policy Partial control of Congress will enable Republicans to hold hearings on issues including Taiwan and human rights, pressuring the Biden administration towards hardline policies. US-based multinationals will face accusations of "ESG hypocrisy" for advocating progressive causes within the US while failing to condemn alleged abuses in China. Congress is likely… January 10, 2023 By Gabriel Wildau
China: Covid Wave Sparks Chaos but not Worst-Case ScenariosChina: Covid Wave Sparks Chaos but not Worst-Case Scenarios China's abrupt transition away from zero-Covid has led to overcrowded hospitals and medication shortages, while driver shortages are delaying home delivery of groceries in some cities. Despite these problems, China so far appears to be avoiding the worst-case scenario of social and political instability, while public anger is unlikely… January 3, 2023 By Gabriel Wildau
What to Watch in 2023: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk TeamWhat to Watch in 2023: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it… December 14, 2022 By Kevin Kajiwara, Wolfango Piccoli, Anne Frühauf, James Brady, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Emily Stromquist, , Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Shamaila Ashraf, Meghan McDonough, Jon B. Alterman
China: Zero-Covid is Over, Policy Focus Shifts to GrowthChina: Zero-Covid is Over, Policy Focus Shifts to Growth The speed of China's exit from zero-Covid is surpassing even the optimistic expectations reflected in last week's note. The readout from the Politburo meeting on 7 December omits any reference to dynamic zero, signaling that the Communist Party leadership has abandoned it. A day later, the National… December 8, 2022 By Gabriel Wildau
China: Zero-Covid Protests Don’t Threaten Xi but May Accelerate Policy ShiftChina: Zero-Covid Protests Don’t Threaten Xi but May Accelerate Policy Shift Protests against the zero-Covid policy have emerged in at least ten cities, with some protests broadening to include opposition to "dictatorship" and demands for democracy, free speech, and human rights. The protests are highly unlikely to threaten President Xi Jinping's political status or the Communist Party's grip on power, given… November 28, 2022 By Gabriel Wildau
China: Easing on Housing and Covid Signals Shift Towards Pro-Growth StanceChina: Easing on Housing and Covid Signals Shift Towards Pro-Growth Stance Policy changes on zero-Covid and housing suggest that the completion of the Party Congress may have eased policy paralysis that prevented aggressive action to revive economic growth. On housing, regulators signaled to banks that property lending is no longer politically incorrect, but it remains unclear how banks will respond to… November 17, 2022 By Gabriel Wildau
EU/China: Hawks on the Rise, but no Decoupling in SightEU/China: Hawks on the Rise, but no Decoupling in Sight The divisions between hawks and doves continue to complicate a common EU policy towards China, but even dovish member states such as France and Germany are struggling to develop a joint strategic approach. The deterioration of the EU-China relationship in the last few months has not had severe material implications… October 31, 2022 By , Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Gabriel Wildau
China: XI Runs the Table at the Party CongressChina: XI Runs the Table at the Party Congress President Xi Jinping achieved his three major objectives: a third five-year term as general secretary, no presumed successor, and a Politburo Standing Committee stacked with loyalists. The main political faction that might have exerted modest constraints on Xi, the Communist Youth League faction, was entirely shut out of the Standing… October 24, 2022 By Gabriel Wildau,
US/China: Biden’s Taiwan Comments and Pending Law Risk Further ProvocationUS/China: Biden’s Taiwan Comments and Pending Law Risk Further Provocation US President Joe Biden stated unequivocally that the US military would defend Taiwan against a mainland invasion; this and similar remarks can no longer be regarded as gaffes. Biden's statement coincides with pending US legislation, the Taiwan Policy Act, that would infuriate Beijing by adopting various symbolic steps to strengthen… September 26, 2022 By Gabriel Wildau
Asia: Record High LNG Prices Threaten Fragile Post-Pandemic RecoveriesAsia: Record High LNG Prices Threaten Fragile Post-Pandemic Recoveries Record high LNG prices have resulted in large cuts to LNG imports across Asia with varied impacts depending on spot market exposure, fuel-switching options and economic responses. Countries in Southeast Asia tend to be the most exposed, whereas countries like India, China, Japan, or South Korea have more fuel-switching options… September 26, 2022 By Emily Stromquist, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, James Brady
China: New Lockdowns Raise Doubts About Zero-Covid Exit PlanChina: New Lockdowns Raise Doubts About Zero-Covid Exit Plan A new wave of Covid-19 lockdowns will further damage household consumption, but recent adjustments to "dynamic zero" will minimize the impact on manufacturing supply chains. Contrary to earlier forecasts, it now appears increasingly doubtful that authorities will move immediately to exit from zero-Covid following the 20th Party Congress in October. September 6, 2022 By Gabriel Wildau
China: Worsening Economy Adds Pressure for Politically Perilous Housing BailoutChina: Worsening Economy Adds Pressure for Politically Perilous Housing Bailout July economic data showed the economy weakening across the board, raising difficult choices for policymakers about whether to backslide on earlier promises to avoid "supersize" stimulus. Interest-rate cuts have failed to revive credit demand, due to the combination of collapsing public confidence in the housing market and the ongoing impact… August 16, 2022 By Gabriel Wildau
US/China: Assessing the Long-Term Impact of Pelosi’s Taiwan VisitUS/China: Assessing the Long-Term Impact of Pelosi’s Taiwan Visit The Chinese government's immediate response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan did not trigger a crisis as feared, but the medium- and long-term impacts could be more significant. Pelosi's visit may have ushered in a new normal of increased Chinese military presence around Taiwan, more frequent provocations… August 12, 2022 By Gabriel Wildau