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Antonio Barroso is a Managing Director with Teneo in London. He co-launched the firm’s political risk advisory service in 2013.
Antonio has more than a decade of experience advising financial markets and multinational corporations on European and international political economy issues. As Deputy Director of Research, he coordinates Teneo’s geopolitical risk coverage.
Antonio helps investors understand and manage political and regulatory dynamics in key EU markets, as well as geopolitical issues affecting their investment and corporate strategies. He is a regular speaker at public and private sector conferences and has given evidence to the Spanish Congress of Deputies and Senate.
He is currently an adjunct professor at the Paris School of International Affairs of Sciences Po and the University of Navarra in Spain. Prior to joining Teneo, Antonio was a Senior Analyst at Eurasia Group, where he co-developed the firm’s Western Europe coverage. He has also worked for the Center for Sociological Research and the Center for Political and Constitutional Studies in Madrid.
Antonio holds a PhD from the London School of Economics and Political Science. He received master’s degrees from Columbia University’s School of International and Public Affairs in New York, where he was a La Caixa Fellow, and the College of Europe in Bruges. He also holds a BA in Political Science and Sociology from the University of Granada in Spain.
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at regional elections in Spain. Meanwhile, electoral competition is increasing in India, China’s president is visiting Hungary and Serbia, senators will start scrutinizing the Argentinian government’s reform…
The European Parliament (EP) elections of 6-9 June and the appointment of a new European Commission by year-end promise to be consequential for a wide range of policy issues. In this joint briefing, our geopolitical advisory and EU teams reflect on the growing importance of defence in the European political…
If at the 1-2 February European Council, Hungary maintains its veto, the remaining 26 EU members will act alone to support Ukraine with a four-year EUR 50bn macro-financial support package. The biggest signpost for future support to Ukraine is the US election, but given the knock-on effects of the geopolitical…
Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at the Spanish election result. Meanwhile, Thailand’s parliament will again vote for a prime minister, the NATO-Ukraine council will meet, Peru’s president will…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Argentina’s primaries. Meanwhile, the US secretary of state has concluded his China visit, tensions remain high between Serbia and Kosovo, the president’s…
The European Commission will launch a new Economic Security Strategy next month, which is expected to touch on issues such as inbound and outbound investment screening and export controls. Brussels is further aligning its approach to China with Washington, but there are structural and political limits to how far the…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at local and regional elections in Spain. Meanwhile, Japan’s successful G7 summit is sparking fresh snap election talk, a mass rally will be…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at French pension reform. Meanwhile, Japan’s ruling party will be strengthened by local election results, Poland’s prime minister is traveling to the US,…
Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at French pension reform. Meanwhile, the presidents of China and Russia will meet, Kosovo and Serbia have struck an implementation deal, the next…
As the National Assembly (AN) starts discussing President Emmanuel Macron's pension reform plans this week, several MPs from pro-Macron parties and the center-right The Republicans (LR) have suggested they might not support it. In the coming weeks, the government will likely try to amend its proposals to convince the skeptical…
A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it…
The ruling PSOE-Podemos coalition has an incentive to hold together until next year’s legislative elections, even if friction between the two parties likely becomes more intense as polling day approaches. Whether the center-right PP can maintain its momentum in the polls will be contingent on the ability of party leader…
The financial incentives included in the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) approved in August are generating transatlantic frictions, as the EU is concerned about their potentially negative effects on European firms. While the tensions are unlikely to trigger a trade conflict in the short term, the disagreement points to the…
The divisions between hawks and doves continue to complicate a common EU policy towards China, but even dovish member states such as France and Germany are struggling to develop a joint strategic approach. The deterioration of the EU-China relationship in the last few months has not had severe material implications…
EU governments are doing their best to prepare for a winter of lower Russian gas supplies, but global price dynamics might strain European economies. National-level measures to protect consumers and firms will remain the default response, although their growing cost will increase the popularity of policy options such as windfall…
The coalition of parties supporting President Emmanuel Macron won the legislative elections on 19 June but fell 43 seats short of an absolute majority (289 MPs) in the 577-seat National Assembly. The center-right Republicans (LR), which obtained 64 seats, are strongly divided on whether to support the government. If Macron…
The coalition of parties supporting President Emmanuel Macron (Together), and the left-wing New Ecologic and Social People's Union (NUPES) led by radical-left politician Jean-Luc Melenchon both obtained around 25.5% of the vote in the first round of the legislative election that took place on 12 June. While forecasting the final…
According to all available estimates, incumbent president Emmanuel Macron (around 27% of votes) and radical right candidate Marine Le Pen (around 23%) will fight it off in the second round of the presidential election on 24 April. Macron is still likely to prevail in the runoff, but the race is…
As the war in Ukraine intensifies, sanctions on Russian oil and gas imports are the ultimate frontier in the Western political debate. Key politicians are trying to gain time, but moral outrage about Russia’s actions on the battlefield might eventually leave them with few alternatives. EU foreign affairs ministers are…
With two months to go to the two-round presidential election (10 and 24 April), we answer below some key questions about the state of the race. Is it Still President Emanuel Macron's Election to Lose? Yes, the incumbent president is still likely to win the vote (70% probability). Macron leads…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections has more than doubled…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom As the omicron wave appears to have passed, the seven-day…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom With more than 78,000 cases, the UK recorded its highest-ever…
This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections keeps oscillating around the mark of…
Support for President Emmanuel Macron ahead of next April’s presidential election has remained relatively stable in recent weeks, with polls suggesting a strong first-round lead and a comfortable runoff victory for the president. A key factor to watch is whether any of Macron’s challengers can meaningfully tap the existing reservoir…
This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us should you wish to discuss any of the countries mentioned in greater detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections has fallen back below the mark…
This piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. United Kingdom The seven-day average of new infections is now on a clear upwards…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph of the week Spain Covid-19 cases have started to…
This updated weekly piece provides snapshots of how selected European governments are dealing with the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail. Graph of the Week Spain The Delta variant now makes…
Engineering global political support for the G7 deal on corporate taxation will be tricky, especially for Pillar 2. The risk of transatlantic trade frictions has been lowered but remains alive, as the highly political tax debate is unlikely to be overcome by global technical agreements. Any EU legislation implementing the…
As national recovery plans are being finalized, it appears unlikely that the EU will expand its post-pandemic recovery resources anytime soon. A gradual reopening of economies will likely make it difficult to argue politically for additional public spending, especially in frugal states. The key debate to watch is that of…
In this updated summary table, we provide an overview of the lockdown exit strategies currently being implemented by selected countries around the world, and the surrounding politics. Please click on the download button below to see the table. Do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any…
In this piece, we provide an overview of the coronavirus lockdown exit strategies currently being planned by selected European governments and the surrounding politics. Please do not hesitate to contact us if you want to discuss any of the countries mentioned in more detail.
Please click here for the latest edition of our daily Europe coronavirus update. Today we include a table summarizing the exit strategies from lockdowns being discussed in selected European countries.
Four topics are likely to draw significant attention in 2019 in Europe: Brexit, the European Parliament elections, polls in Southern Europe, and a crucial ballot in Poland. Below we cut through the noise they will likely generate in order to focus on the issues that will matter: TOPIC 1: The…
Former First Minister Carles Puigdemont’s de facto takeover of the leadership of the main center-right, pro-independence Catalan Democratic Party (PDeCAT) last weekend reduces the chances of normalization of Catalan politics. The hardening of PDeCAT’s stance could jeopardize the approval of some of the key reform initiatives of the ruling Socialist…
The arrest of former First Minister Carles Puigdemont in Germany on 25 March has galvanized once again the Catalan pro-independence movement, adding to the increased mobilization triggered by the jailing of five secessionist politicians on 23 March. However, the display of unity by separatist parties is unlikely to lead to an…
