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Andrius Tursa

Central & Eastern Europe Advisor

Andrius Tursa helps Teneo’s clients navigate political risks in Central and Eastern Europe and Russia.

Andrius has been working as a political risk consultant since 2012. Some of his previous clients include Eurasia Group, IHS Markit, Fitch Solutions and the Economist Intelligence Unit. Andrius is also an experienced labor market policy researcher and evaluator. In 2017, he co-founded Lithuania-based research and consulting company Policy Impact Lab.

Andrius has a master’s degree in global governance and diplomacy from the University of Oxford and holds an honors bachelor’s degree in international development from the University of California, Los Angeles. Currently, he is based in Vilnius, Lithuania.

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CEE: Risks of a bad deal for Ukraine—and EuropeCEE: Risks of a bad deal for Ukraine—and Europe An unfavorable ceasefire deal would leave Ukraine without robust security guarantees, ease sanctions on Russia and accommodate Moscow’s demands for a new European security framework. Despite limited leverage, Kyiv would not automatically approve a deal that effectively amounts to its surrender. A bad deal would heighten the risk of renewed… February 20, 2025 By Andrius Tursa
Weekly Political Compass 2.10.25Weekly Political Compass 2.10.25 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the possibility that the U.S. could broker a Russia/Ukraine ceasefire. Meanwhile, China’s vice premier will promote AI cooperation in France, Germany’s election race remains tight, and… February 10, 2025 By Andrius Tursa, Wolfango Piccoli
What to Watch in 2025: Outlooks for the Year Ahead From Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk TeamWhat to Watch in 2025: Outlooks for the Year Ahead From Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team Foreword: The Global Year Ahead As the dust settles on a momentous U.S. election and the incoming administration takes shape, the geopolitical landscape for 2025 is already coming into focus. Against this backdrop, our team of analysts once again explores the critical global trends and regional hotspots demanding attention in… December 10, 2024 By Kevin Kajiwara, Wolfango Piccoli, Manji Cheto, Anne Frühauf, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, James Brady, Arpit Chaturvedi, Emily Stromquist, Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Meghan McDonough, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Shamaila Ashraf, Jon B. Alterman, James Crossland, Nate Tamarin
Weekly Political Compass 12.2.24Weekly Political Compass 12.2.24 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Romania’s geopolitically consequential elections. Elsewhere, France holds a key vote related to the budget, the Mercosur summit kicks off at a sensitive time for global trade… December 2, 2024 By Wolfango Piccoli, Andrius Tursa
Weekly Political Compass 10.21.24Weekly Political Compass 10.21.24 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Russia hosting an expanded BRICS summit. Meanwhile, Japan will hold a general election, while tensions are high on the Korean border. Georgia's general election could determine… October 21, 2024 By Wolfango Piccoli, Andrius Tursa
Weekly Political Compass 9.23.24Weekly Political Compass 9.23.24 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Ukraine’s so-called victory plan. Meanwhile, Japan’s ruling party will elect its new leader and prime minister, the far right might win the Austrian general election, and… September 23, 2024 By Wolfango Piccoli, Andrius Tursa
CEE: What to Expect from the NATO SummitCEE: What to Expect from the NATO Summit Continued support to Ukraine will be the most urgent priority during the NATO summit taking place on 9-11 July in Washington, DC. However, Ukraine will not be invited to join NATO, nor is it likely to receive credible long-term support guarantees required to prevail in the war against Russia. Despite… July 9, 2024 By Andrius Tursa
Russia: First Policies of Putin’s New Term Shaping UpRussia: First Policies of Putin’s New Term Shaping Up A reshuffle of senior defense officials and the proposed tax hikes suggest President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to sustain the war in Ukraine and develop the country’s military capabilities in the medium-to-long term. Asset takeovers have become relatively common and will remain a pertinent risk for domestic and Western (especially the… June 4, 2024 By Andrius Tursa
Ukraine: Renewed U.S. Support Averts Potential Defeat but Outlook Remains CloudyUkraine: Renewed U.S. Support Averts Potential Defeat but Outlook Remains Cloudy Following the passage of the USD 61bn support package for Ukraine by the House of Representatives on 20 April, Kyiv is anticipating the legislation will be adopted by the US Senate and signed by President Joe Biden this week. Renewed US military support will shore up Ukraine’s defensive capabilities and… April 23, 2024 By Andrius Tursa
Weekly Political Compass 2.20.24Weekly Political Compass 2.20.24 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at new EU sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile, Thailand’s former prime minister was released from jail, the European Commission president is seeking a second term, Brazil’s president has… February 20, 2024 By Wolfango Piccoli, Andrius Tursa
Ukraine: Growing Military Challenges Test Public and Political UnityUkraine: Growing Military Challenges Test Public and Political Unity Public resilience is gradually eroding and will be further tested by unpopular mobilization plans, uncertainty about external military assistance and the worsening situation on the frontlines. Unless military support from the US is renewed in the near term, Russia’s military advantage will grow and might result in new territorial advances. February 9, 2024 By Andrius Tursa
Europe: Even Before U.S. Polls, A Complicated Outlook for Ukraine SupportEurope: Even Before U.S. Polls, A Complicated Outlook for Ukraine Support If at the 1-2 February European Council, Hungary maintains its veto, the remaining 26 EU members will act alone to support Ukraine with a four-year EUR 50bn macro-financial support package. The biggest signpost for future support to Ukraine is the US election, but given the knock-on effects of the geopolitical… January 30, 2024 By , Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Wolfango Piccoli
Russia/Ukraine: Conflict Still not Ripe for TalksRussia/Ukraine: Conflict Still not Ripe for Talks The fourth Ukraine peace formula meeting in Davos once again exposed vast differences between Kyiv and Moscow on the format and content of any future negotiations. At this point, there is little public and political will in Ukraine to open talks with Russia, but the situation might change later in… January 16, 2024 By Andrius Tursa
What to Watch in 2024: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk TeamWhat to Watch in 2024: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team Foreword The Global Year Ahead The events of 2023 suggest that the global system has entered an intense period of structural transition that will reorder geopolitics and reshape the international business environment in fundamental ways. Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, frozen conflicts have reignited in places like Israel/Gaza and Nagorno-Karabakh,… December 6, 2023 By Kevin Kajiwara, Wolfango Piccoli, Anne Frühauf, Emily Stromquist, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, James Brady, Arpit Chaturvedi, , Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Shamaila Ashraf, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Jon B. Alterman, Meghan McDonough, James Crossland, Orson Porter
Ukraine/EU: A Symbolic Step Forward in a Long Journey Toward EU MembershipUkraine/EU: A Symbolic Step Forward in a Long Journey Toward EU Membership A recommendation by the European Commission (EC) to start EU accession talks is a symbolic move that heightens optimism in Ukraine about the country’s future amid Russia’s devastating invasion. The launch of the talks would put Kyiv on a long-term reform pathway and could become a unifying objective for pro-Western… November 13, 2023 By Andrius Tursa
Russia/Ukraine: What Comes After the (Failed) Counteroffensive?Russia/Ukraine: What Comes After the (Failed) Counteroffensive? Ukraine’s counteroffensive has not achieved the presumed military and political objectives so far and the prospects of a breakthrough appear limited. Kyiv is expected to adopt a more defensive approach if uncertainty about US military support continues, and Russia intensifies its land and air attacks in winter months. The initial… October 23, 2023 By Andrius Tursa
Weekly Political Compass 10.16.23Weekly Political Compass 10.16.23 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the Polish election result. Meanwhile, China will host its third Belt and Road Forum, Italy’s government has approved its 2024 budget, and the… October 16, 2023 By Wolfango Piccoli, Andrius Tursa
Weekly Political Compass 10.2.23Weekly Political Compass 10.2.23 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the political outlook in Slovakia. Meanwhile, Indonesia unveils an important rail project funded through the Belt and Road Initiative. In Greece, New Democracy (ND) is expected… October 2, 2023 By Wolfango Piccoli, Andrius Tursa
Weekly Political Compass 9.11.23Weekly Political Compass 9.11.23 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at Ukrainian grain exports to Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Japan’s prime minister is set to reshuffle his cabinet, elections in Russia returned… September 11, 2023 By Wolfango Piccoli, Andrius Tursa
Europe: CEE Pulse 7.25.24Europe: CEE Pulse 7.25.24 Although an EU ban on Ukrainian grain imports to five Central and East European (CEE) countries expires in mid-September, discussions on extending the ban are already restarting. Russia is likely seeking to disrupt Ukraine’s counteroffensive by stepping up its own offensive actions in northeastern parts of Ukraine. Following the arrival… July 25, 2023 By Andrius Tursa
Weekly Political Compass 5.30.23Weekly Political Compass 5.30.23 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at drone attacks in Russia. Meanwhile, the Philippines will create a sovereign wealth fund, Turkey’s president will announce a new cabinet, regional gubernatorial… May 30, 2023 By Wolfango Piccoli, Andrius Tursa
Russia: Screws Tightening on Foreign BusinessesRussia: Screws Tightening on Foreign Businesses The first instances of nationalization since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine are indicative of a further worsening business climate for foreign entities, many of which are continuing operations in Russia or are going through a lengthy and complicated exit process. As anticipated, foreign businesses are also… May 15, 2023 By Andrius Tursa
Europe: CEE Pulse 5.2.23Europe: CEE Pulse 5.2.23 A month after the snap parliamentary elections, Bulgaria is not closer to forming a government. The EU is expected to extend tariff-free imports of agricultural products from Ukraine until June 2024, but some exceptions will likely be made for certain CEE countries. Multilateral talks on extending… May 2, 2023 By Andrius Tursa
Weekly Political Compass 5.2.23Weekly Political Compass 5.2.23 Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team! This week, we are taking a closer look at Serbia-Kosovo talks. Meanwhile, the leaders of Japan and South Korea will meet, Turkey’s election campaign is getting increasingly tense, and a fake… May 2, 2023 By Wolfango Piccoli, Andrius Tursa
Russia: The Challenges and Risks of (not) Exiting the Russian MarketRussia: The Challenges and Risks of (not) Exiting the Russian Market Local management buyouts and the sale of assets to Russian investors have been the most common approaches used by foreign companies exiting the Russian market. Companies from countries deemed "unfriendly" by the Kremlin face a constantly evolving and increasingly restrictive regulatory environment, which makes exiting a lengthy and costly process. March 7, 2023 By Andrius Tursa
What to Watch in 2023: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk TeamWhat to Watch in 2023: Outlooks for the Year Ahead from Teneo’s Geopolitical Risk Team A year ago, political, corporate and market leaders across the globe contemplated what the buildup of Russian forces along Ukraine’s borders would portend. While the U.S. administration and intelligence community warned that a Russian invasion was likely, many corporate leaders and market participants were nevertheless taken by surprise when it… December 14, 2022 By Kevin Kajiwara, Wolfango Piccoli, Anne Frühauf, James Brady, Victor D. Cha, Bob Herrera-Lim, Gabriel Wildau, Emily Stromquist, , Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Mario Marconini, Nicholas Watson, Shamaila Ashraf, Meghan McDonough, Jon B. Alterman
EU/China: Hawks on the Rise, but no Decoupling in SightEU/China: Hawks on the Rise, but no Decoupling in Sight The divisions between hawks and doves continue to complicate a common EU policy towards China, but even dovish member states such as France and Germany are struggling to develop a joint strategic approach. The deterioration of the EU-China relationship in the last few months has not had severe material implications… October 31, 2022 By , Carsten Nickel, Andrius Tursa, Gabriel Wildau
Russia/Ukraine: Moscow Escalates to Conceal Setbacks on the FrontlinesRussia/Ukraine: Moscow Escalates to Conceal Setbacks on the Frontlines Massive air strikes on critical infrastructure and civilians across Ukraine aimed to “punish” Kyiv for targeting the strategic Crimean Bridge and mitigate domestic criticism for military setbacks elsewhere. Russia’s failure to stabilize the situation on the frontlines is likely to prompt more escalatory and asymmetric measures targeting Ukraine and its… October 10, 2022 By Andrius Tursa
Hungary: Crunch Times for EU Funds ApproachingHungary: Crunch Times for EU Funds Approaching Viktor Orban’s government is rushing with anti-corruption reforms not to lose access to more than 13bn of EU funds. An eventual compromise is likely, but Budapest’s access to EU funds will remain conditional on compliance with anti-corruption and rule-of-law reforms for the foreseeable future. While formally unrelated to EU funds,… October 10, 2022 By Andrius Tursa
CEE: Energy Crisis Exacerbates Economic and Political ChallengesCEE: Energy Crisis Exacerbates Economic and Political Challenges The heavily industrialized, trade-dependent, and energy-intensive economies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are particularly vulnerable to high energy prices, and economic slowdown in Western Europe. A total shutoff of Russian gas flows to Europe would likely lead to highly disruptive gas shortages in countries like Hungary or Serbia. The… September 9, 2022 By Andrius Tursa