The Trump Effect: Global CEOs and Investors Embrace America-First Economic Agenda

• Nearly 700 global public company CEOs and institutional investors representing approximately $10 trillion USD of company and portfolio value express soaring confidence in the global economy in the wake of Trump win
• 32-point year-over-year increase in CEOs who expect the global economy to improve in the first half of 2025
• Majority of large-company CEOs expect quick improvement in the global economy for first time in three-year history of survey
• CEOs and investors expect significant investment in the U.S. market, major acceleration of M&A, increased hiring and a stronger U.S. dollar in 2025
• Concerns about tariffs, geopolitical tensions and trade barriers outweighed by optimism for economic growth

President Trump’s election victory leads to soaring confidence in the global economy, according to a new study by Teneo, the global CEO advisory firm. Conducted in the three weeks immediately following the U.S. election, the survey compares the views of more than 300 global public company CEOs and 380 institutional investors representing approximately $10 trillion USD of company and portfolio value.

“For the first time since Teneo has conducted this survey, we see significant alignment between CEOs and investors on the direction of the global economy, and confidence has never been higher,” said Paul Keary, CEO of Teneo. “Buoyed by the ‘Trump Effect,’ the market expects a resurgence of M&A, increased hiring and greater levels of U.S. and foreign investment. The U.S. will clearly be the beneficiary of much of this positive activity, solidifying its position as the most important investment destination for global businesses.”

“The operating environment has dramatically shifted over the past six months, changing how we think about everything from supply chains to activist investors to AI and ESG,” said Teneo Chairwoman Ursula Burns. “Looking ahead to the next six months, we are helping clients capitalize on this new wave of economic optimism while continuing to navigate key geopolitical, policy and social challenges.”

Key survey findings include:

Macroeconomic Outlook: 32-point year-over-year increase in CEOs who expect the global economy to improve in the first half of 2025.

• 77% of global CEOs (up from just 45% in 2024) and 86% of investors expect the global economy to improve in the first six months of 2025.
• More than 80% of CEOs and investors expect a major return of M&A in 2025 (compared to 68% in 2024), citing greater access to capital and expected impact of the incoming Trump administration as the greatest accelerants.
• The U.S. ranks as the most attractive investment destination amongst global CEOs.

The Trump Effect: Global CEOs and investors are optimistic about the economic impact of a second Trump administration, outweighing concerns about tariffs, geopolitical tensions and trade barriers.

• 50% of global CEOs are accelerating activities in areas such as domestic and international investments and hiring based on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. election.
• More than 64% of survey respondents believe that potentially disruptive Trump administration policy shifts in tariffs, along with rollbacks in taxes and regulation, will have a positive impact on their businesses in 2025.
• More than 80% of both CEOs and investors believe that increased M&A volume, a strong dollar and trade disruption are the most likely outcomes of a second Trump administration.

Geopolitics: More than 76% of CEOs and 83% of investors believe that the outcome of global elections in 2024 will improve the global economy and global stability.

• For the second consecutive year, changes to monetary policy, data privacy, environmental regulations and China policies rank as the most significant risks by CEOs and investors.
• The percentage of CEOs reporting that China plays a critical role in their corporate strategy has more than doubled from two years ago (from 20% in 2023 to 47% in 2025).
• CEOs and investors are confident that businesses are prepared to address a wide range of potentially disruptive issues, including conflicts in Russia/Ukraine and the Middle East.

ESG: Amidst evolving investor and stakeholder expectations, nearly every CEO in the survey (91%) is recalibrating their company’s ESG priorities.

• The majority of global CEOs (56%) remain committed to balancing ESG priorities with core business objectives.
• In line with investor expectations, 91% of CEOs globally (up from 72% in 2024) have adjusted their ESG initiatives due to the politicization of ESG.
  • Of those, 40% are being more selective about which issues or topics they engage in.
  • One-in-four are scaling back ESG programs.
• Nearly all CEOs globally (94%) intend to maintain their efforts to recruit and retain diverse talent while remaining compliant with potential new employment rules.

Innovation: The world’s biggest companies are all-in on AI; however, while they are willing to give AI investments time to mature, Wall Street is watching the clock.

• Nearly 80% of investors expect AI projects to be ROI-positive within the first year, while CEOs of large-cap companies (41%) are willing to let initiatives mature over 1-2 years before expecting positive results.
• CEOs and investors agree that responsibility for setting AI strategy for a business resides squarely with the CEO; however, investors also want to see deeper involvement from Boards in setting AI strategy and overseeing governance.
• Smaller companies are placing a wide range of technological bets (AI, robotics, augmented reality, quantum computing, crypto), while the world’s biggest companies are prioritizing their investments in AI.

Teneo’s Vision 2025 CEO and Investor Outlook Survey was conducted by the firm’s in-house data, insights and analytics team. The survey includes the views of more than 300 global public company CEOs and 380 institutional investors representing approximately $10 trillion USD of company and portfolio value. The CEOs surveyed represent a global distribution of publicly traded companies with a minimum annual revenue of $1 billion USD or greater. Investors surveyed include a global sampling of professional investors in investment banking, institutional investing, venture investing, asset management, private equity and hedge funds. Research was conducted between November 11 and December 3, 2024.

For more information and to download full survey results, visit teneo.com/Vision2025.

New York

Stephen Meahl
stephen.meahl@teneo.com
M: +1 (212) 886-1624