Skip to content
DisclaimerPrivacy

Insights

Weekly Political Compass 2.3.25

Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the rapidly evolving landscape of U.S. trade policy, impacting China, Mexico, Canada, and perhaps South Africa. Meanwhile, Japan’s PM will visit Washington, the UK’s PM will…

February 3, 2025
By Wolfango Piccoli & Gabriel Wildau
New Reformists Emerging in ChinaNew Reformists Emerging in China More Centralization of Power Coming China’s economy made headlines again in 2016. For the casual observer, slowing growth was the dominant storyline. Those who take a deeper look, however, will find a competing narrative: China’s economy is moving in two different directions. In industrial regions, China’s “old economy” is showing… October 8, 2017
Political Fragmentation Rising in EuropePolitical Fragmentation Rising in Europe Look for Uncertainty to be a Major Trend Last year, we looked ahead to 2016 as a transitional year in Europe. Since then, the United Kingdom’s (UK) vote to leave the European Union (EU), the rising terrorist threat and the bloc’s ever-more complex relationship with Turkey have rocked markets. In… October 7, 2017
PHILIPPINES: Strong pro-Beijing, anti-US rhetoric but terms of the separation still unclearPHILIPPINES: Strong pro-Beijing, anti-US rhetoric but terms of the separation still unclear The president’s trip to China will strengthen the perception that he wants to push the Philippines closer to Beijing and further away from Washington. Encouraging Chinese economic cooperation will, however, be easier than formally cutting ties with the United States. The risks from this policy shift lie more in the… October 6, 2017
Thailand: The slight detour in the succession is not a cause for concern, for nowThailand: The slight detour in the succession is not a cause for concern, for now Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn decided to defer his proclamation as King for an unspecified period. For now, this is a benign development because the delay is not seen as going beyond this October. Should his proclamation not take place by the end of this month, then speculation could increase of… October 5, 2017
Brexit Bulletin: Battle lines drawnBrexit Bulletin: Battle lines drawn The EU 27 have toughened their stance and some elements of the UK’s negotiating position are becoming clearer while others are still to be resolved. The EU has a very powerful negotiating position, but the UK Parliament could throw a spanner in the works Battle lines drawn Theresa May’s speeches at… October 4, 2017
Brexit Bulletin: Article 50 by the End of March and the Great Repeal BillBrexit Bulletin: Article 50 by the End of March and the Great Repeal Bill May has started to set out her stall after a period of preparation and technical work over the Summer. Article 50 will be triggered before the end of March, without a vote to approve this formally in Parliament. This means that the U.K. is likely to leave the EU before… October 3, 2017
South Africa: Zuma’s cacophonous cabinet – what to watchSouth Africa: Zuma’s cacophonous cabinet – what to watch On 13 September, President Jacob Zuma will face tough questions in parliament about governance and economic plans to avert a credit rating downgrade. Although the ANC’s reform faction has stepped up its reassuring rhetoric, it is no longer able to paper over the cracks in cabinet and alarming noise from… October 2, 2017
Brexit Bulletin: Why the EU-Swiss talks this autumn matter for the UKBrexit Bulletin: Why the EU-Swiss talks this autumn matter for the UK Formal EU-UK Brexit talks are expected to start in 2017, but negotiations between the bloc and Switzerland over the future of free movement will turn hot before the end of the year. Brexiters as well as several independent experts continue to speculate that the UK’s status as the world’s fifth… October 1, 2017
Message Delivery – A Revised Approach for Public Relations MeasurementMessage Delivery – A Revised Approach for Public Relations Measurement The measurement of communication impact has become a long-standing discussion in the public relations research community. While discussions about standardized measurement date back decades (Lindenmann, 2005, pp. 3-4), the current debates about standardized measurement became prominent with the work of Michaelson and Stacks (Michaelson & Stacks, 2011).  In their 2011… October 1, 2017
TURKEY: A Pyrrhic Victory for Democracy (and the Economy)TURKEY: A Pyrrhic Victory for Democracy (and the Economy) Following the failed coup attempt that took place on 15 July, the ongoing deterioration of the domestic political environment is set to accelerate. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is likely to use the failed gamble by a faction of the military to further cement his grip on power by cracking down… September 30, 2017
Southeast Asia’s Daunting ChallengesSoutheast Asia’s Daunting Challenges Political and economic challenges are mounting and threaten to reduce growth expectations for the region for the next few years. Not since the Asian financial crisis has Southeast Asia had to contend with the combination of political and economic challenges that it now faces. Uncertainty in the major western markets… September 29, 2017
The Road to China’s Second Reform and Opening UpThe Road to China’s Second Reform and Opening Up Badly handled market interventions last summer have stimulated doubt that China’s leadership will devote the political capital to push through painful reforms in order to achieve faster growth. Anxiety over China’s economy reached new heights this summer following the crash of the Shanghai Composite Index and botched currency reform, but… September 27, 2017