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Global Newsletter & Insights Series
With a month to go to the 4 March parliamentary election, the presentation of the list of candidates by each party does not seem to have had any meaningful impact on the polls. Equally, the number of undecided voters and those who might abstain remain high (30-35%). In the aftermath…
With slightly more than a month left to ballot day (4 March), the most likely outcome of the general election remains a hung parliament. The result would be a messy stalemate in which no party or electoral alliance controls a parliamentary majority. Attempts to form a government could be slowed…
At a meeting in Tokyo on 23 January, chief negotiators from the 11 remaining members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) announced that they had overcome outstanding disagreements from the ministerial meeting in November and that trade ministers would meet to sign a final agreement of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement…
The Abe government is developing a policy to support Japanese companies collaborating with Chinese companies on Belt-and-Road Initiative (BRI) projects. If projects satisfy certain conditions regarding transparency, financial sustainability, and purely civilian value, firms will be eligible to receive support from the Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) and other…
Former Minerals Council of Australia CEO Mitch Hooke, architect of the 2010 mining tax campaign, identifies empathy, credibility and integrity as the essential ingredients to the campaign’s ultimate success. In considering the relevance of empathy to the success of the campaign, we are given pause to ask, how exactly does…
There are a host of elections across the region in 2018, led by Brazil and Mexico. Populism will remain a viable electoral offering but the risks posed by populist candidates should not be exaggerated. Electoral noise and blackspots of political turbulence will not detract from positives, including: an ongoing if…
Many Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries are gradually confronting political sea change as long-serving rulers and dominant ruling parties face increasingly uncertain futures. Nowhere is this more apparent than in South Africa, where a divided ruling party will struggle to address urgent fiscal and economic issues ahead of elections in…
Geopolitical maneuvering will intensify in 2018, with North Korea as the single most persistent risk. Trade will move forward on the back of TPP-11, but RCEP’s progress remains questionable. Southeast Asia has pockets of potential instability. 1. Geopolitical Maneuvering, With Korea As The Most Urgent Issue…
The risk of a disorderly Brexit is now at 40% (up from 30%). Leaders will start working towards EU reform, but the time window is very narrow. Short-termism dominates economic policy making amid continued populist pressures in CEE. 1. Brexit: Now For The Difficult Part Negotiations between…
Outlook for Regional Security. A discussion between Victor Cha, Senior Advisor, Teneo and Kevin Kajiwara, Co-President, Political Risk Advisory Victor Cha, Teneo Senior Advisor and former National Security Council Director for Asian Affairs, who was recently put forward as the candidate for ambassador by the U.S. administration to…
President Tayyip Erdogan publicly denied on 4 December that the country is considering introducing capital controls, one day after he accused some Turkish businesses of treason for transferring money abroad and called on the Cabinet to take measures to address the issue. On 3 December, during an address to a…
Be Aware, Not Afraid When it comes to crisis, it’s not “if,” it’s “when.” That is the one certainty that emerges from the uncertainty around us as we anticipate, mitigate, and navigate non-economic risk. Thus, while granular predictions of what will happen in 2018 are not possible, I can share…
