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Weekly Political Compass 3.31.25

Welcome to this edition of the Weekly Political Compass from Teneo’s political risk advisory team. This week, we are taking a closer look at the EU’s possible response to the U.S.’s so-called “Liberation Day” tariff escalation. Meanwhile, China flexes its military muscle, South Korea continues to wait for the presidential…

March 31, 2025
By Wolfango Piccoli & Carsten Nickel
Southeast Asia: Leaders Guard Their Flanks Against Rising Prices Southeast Asia: Leaders Guard Their Flanks Against Rising Prices Leaders of several of the region’s largest economies are becoming more sensitive to possible adverse public reactions to higher prices, especially fuel, and their potential to create political vulnerabilities. Populist economic policies will be part of the mix of reactions, depending on the nature of the pressure on the leaders, the… June 1, 2018
Brazil: Trucker Strike Puts Economic Populism at Center of Political Discourse Brazil: Trucker Strike Puts Economic Populism at Center of Political Discourse The ten-day nation-wide trucker strike may be waning, albeit slowly, but its effects are long-standing.It has crippled not only supply chains, causing shortages and disruptions, but also an evolving consensus within the political establishment in favor of reformist economic policies. This has significant implications for the October 2018 general and… May 30, 2018
Venezuela: Regime is Brittle, but End-Game is not Necessarily Imminent Venezuela: Regime is Brittle, but End-Game is not Necessarily Imminent The 20 May election was a pyrrhic victory for President Nicolas Maduro because it exposed his lack of popular support. The economic crisis is so severe – and worsening – that Maduro’s position will remain highly precarious. However, there are several factors at play that could help Maduro stay in power,… May 23, 2018
Brazil: Presidential Race Stable Despite Lula Exit Brazil: Presidential Race Stable Despite Lula Exit Voter intentions have remained largely unchanged following the imprisonment of Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva. This is somewhat surprising, as many believed the former president’s campaign had fueled the rise of the rightwing Congressman Jair Bolsonaro and stifled the candidacies of other leftist politicians. The exit of as polarizing a… May 16, 2018
Armenia: Pashinian Increases Pressure Ahead of Decisive Vote Armenia: Pashinian Increases Pressure Ahead of Decisive Vote The opposition leader Nikol Pashinian has increased pressure on the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) by calling a general strike ahead of his second attempt to become prime minister on 8 May. The probability of early elections in the coming months is high, and the snap polls would likely… May 2, 2018
Nigeria: Bending the Rules While Budget Remains Stalled Nigeria: Bending the Rules While Budget Remains Stalled As expected, the National Assembly failed to meet the self-imposed deadline to pass the 2018 budget on 24 April. This date was announced on 21 March by the National Assembly leadership, but signs had emerged shortly afterwards that the target was untenable. Looking ahead, the base case remains that –… May 1, 2018
Turkey: Erdogan’s Snap Polls Unlikely to Bring Stability Turkey: Erdogan’s Snap Polls Unlikely to Bring Stability Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has announced snap presidential and parliamentary elections for 24 June 2018. The uncertainty of the country’s economic outlook and a desire to catch opposition parties off guard are probably behind the president’s change of mind. Erdogan’s likely victory is unlikely to bring political stability or be… April 18, 2018
China: Trade Tensions, Talks with North Korea and Term Limits China: Trade Tensions, Talks with North Korea and Term Limits A discussion between Teneo Senior Advisor and Director of the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, China, Paul Haenle and Kevin Kajiwara, Co-Head of Teneo Intelligence. Teneo Senior Advisor Paul Haenle, former China Director and White House representative to the Six-Party Talks on the National Security Council staffs of former presidents George… April 18, 2018
Malaysia: Election Preview – It’s in the Turnout Malaysia: Election Preview – It’s in the Turnout Turnout is the key; for now, the consensus is that the opposition’s dysfunction will result in a lower number compared to 2013, which will help the ruling National Front keep its parliamentary majority. If there are signs that the youth and ethnic Chinese and Indians are becoming more active, then… April 11, 2018
Peru: A Question Of When, Not If, Vizcarra’s Political Honeymoon Breaks Peru: A Question Of When, Not If, Vizcarra’s Political Honeymoon Breaks Martin Vizcarra has had a reasonably successful first few days in the presidency since he replaced Pedro Pablo Kuczynski on 23 March. Yesterday, 2 April, Vizcarra unveiled his new cabinet, which will be headed by Cesar Villanueva of the opposition Alliance for Progress (APP) party, who previously occupied the cabinet… April 3, 2018
Spain: Puigdemont’s Arrest Will Not Solve Catalan Deadlock (For Now) Spain: Puigdemont’s Arrest Will Not Solve Catalan Deadlock (For Now) The arrest of former First Minister Carles Puigdemont in Germany on 25 March has galvanized once again the Catalan pro-independence movement, adding to the increased mobilization triggered by the jailing of five secessionist politicians on 23 March. However, the display of unity by separatist parties is unlikely to lead to an… March 26, 2018
Japan: Falling Approval Ratings Increase Pressure on Abe Japan: Falling Approval Ratings Increase Pressure on Abe Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s approval ratings tumbled in a series of polls conducted over the weekend, highlighting the extent to which the reemergence of the Moritomo Gakuen scandal has critically undermined support for his government. While many Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) supporters continue to stand by the prime minister, Abe’s… March 19, 2018