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Global Newsletter & Insights Series
As forecast, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) won the 1 July presidential election by a landslide and the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) party is on course to secure a legislative majority. The five-month long transition should provide further clues as to AMLO’s policy priorities, many of which…
With his re-election, Tayyip Erdogan has become Turkey’s most powerful leader since the country began to hold multi-party elections. There is no reason to think that he will pursue more accommodating policies as the first president with full executive power in a system without serious mechanisms of checks and balances.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s charm offensive to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has garnered significant rewards with the announcement of a USD 3bn pledge by Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi. In a rare visit by the crown prince to Ethiopia, which was…
In a surprise decision, the 36-member Executive Committee of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) approved sweeping and unprecedented economic reforms. On 5 June, the EPRDF announced plans to open up the state-owned telecommunications sector and airline to private domestic and foreign investment. These reforms will also include…
The ruling coalition has had to face a number of electoral reverses recently, giving an impetus to moves towards opposition unity. If the opposition can get its act together, the ruling NDA coalition might find the going tough in 2019, when general elections are due. A good signpost of the…
As a frequent visitor to Asia, the UK and the US, it occurred to me recently how differently we, in Australia, treat the discipline of corporate affairs and the corporate affairs function. And by that, I mean how differently senior candidates are viewed when executive searches are carried out for…
Leaders of several of the region’s largest economies are becoming more sensitive to possible adverse public reactions to higher prices, especially fuel, and their potential to create political vulnerabilities. Populist economic policies will be part of the mix of reactions, depending on the nature of the pressure on the leaders, the…
The ten-day nation-wide trucker strike may be waning, albeit slowly, but its effects are long-standing.It has crippled not only supply chains, causing shortages and disruptions, but also an evolving consensus within the political establishment in favor of reformist economic policies. This has significant implications for the October 2018 general and…
The 20 May election was a pyrrhic victory for President Nicolas Maduro because it exposed his lack of popular support. The economic crisis is so severe – and worsening – that Maduro’s position will remain highly precarious. However, there are several factors at play that could help Maduro stay in power,…
Voter intentions have remained largely unchanged following the imprisonment of Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva. This is somewhat surprising, as many believed the former president’s campaign had fueled the rise of the rightwing Congressman Jair Bolsonaro and stifled the candidacies of other leftist politicians. The exit of as polarizing a…
The opposition leader Nikol Pashinian has increased pressure on the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) by calling a general strike ahead of his second attempt to become prime minister on 8 May. The probability of early elections in the coming months is high, and the snap polls would likely…
As expected, the National Assembly failed to meet the self-imposed deadline to pass the 2018 budget on 24 April. This date was announced on 21 March by the National Assembly leadership, but signs had emerged shortly afterwards that the target was untenable. Looking ahead, the base case remains that –…
